I ramble about turmeric and discuss some points from VivaFrei’s vlog about the legal, economic, and social consequences of the government’s reaction to the Coronvirus Pandemic.
Viva’s vlog is in the form of a discussion between three lawyers one of whom agrees with the governments response (more or less) and one that disagrees strongly.
Here is the link:
My shitty notes for what it’s worth:
Viva Frei
Robert Barnes
Nate Broady
There is a problem with mass testing
US has an unprecedented economy based on overnight trades of debt.
“If writing checks could solve problems the Soviet Union would still exist.”
A few month shutdown is what led to the great depression.
US is in the worst possible situation to survive this.
Our supply chains are a major issue.
33 min in.
Reporting raw numbers without context causes fear.
This new virus rate is thirty times more deadly than flu rate. This was a bogus stat. And it’s bogusness was rarely questioned. It was bad math based on missing data point.
Scott Adams and others on the bandwagon of “it’s not just the flu” are assholes. There’s not enough info to know.
Early on viruses are bad and then after going through most vulnerable rate goes down.
The fed is on a defacto policy to keep interest rates under 4%. Because people wouldn’t buy it otherwise. So they are under enormous pressure to keep the repo markets at a certain rate.
Is this scale of QE going to have counterproductive results.
Speech control, governmental control, and YT = Creepy.
This situation is a statists delight.
China bought up all the respirators.
China covered stuff up, shoulda controlled wet markets, etc.
Epoch Times = Chinese Americans very critical of China
“He who defines the terms wins the debate.” – debaters, lawyers tip
Things in New York are getting bad.
Anecdotal vs Scientific
Science is abductive
You don’t have a lot of evidence with a lot of evidence
Projections from a small amount of data
Looking at data and modelling says this a choice between the economy and two million peoples lives.
The infection rate is what’s different from the flu.
Harvard guy said 40 percent infection rate and predicted school shutdowns etc.
There is a real problem here.
The New Rochelle bomb
7 days later lawyer who had been tested positive was in a hospital with a ventilator
New York officials traced 50 Coronavirus to this one attorney (anecdotal)
Apparently contrary to UPS this shit can live on surfaces for a bit
Mass transit = HUUUUGE vector
50 ppl infect 50 people per initial 50 = exponential growth
Without intervention the curve will continue
Hence the measures
Overuns of healthcare systems occur due to this virus (my ob: or the panic/hypochoindria)
There is a high recovery rate (question)
Robert Barnes doesn’t like the universality of the model
3 big assumptions
is the exponential rate continuos
The curve is deceptive
Why not use money to build more facilities rather do a life threating shut down
3 key assumptions about the models
modeling is correct
mitigation efforts succed
mitigation doesnt have worse or other impacts
theres no evidence that these measures wouldnt be impacted by the measures themselves
this is what happens when we have pure academcis making polilcy decisions
the first thirty days of virus as data is nuts as proof
even in countries with shitty mitigation after thirty days there is a drop off
Peter Hitchens attacks the models
Correlation does not equal causation necessisarily
Israeli guy who said the virus would die out on its own in China and he was closer to correct than imperial college
First thirty days the virus is vicious but tapers off
Not everyone is equally susceptible
if its 50 to eighty percent infection why didnt it happen on the ship?
Infection is not the fear, hospitalization, and death is the fear
So the people at risk for this should be the ones quarantines etc
3 prexisting conditions on average for corona deaths in italy
we make these difficult decisions all the time
the backfire is terrifying
we live in a world of tradeoffs
who or what do you prioritize
people dont realize the economic extent of this
doesnt appear to have been a lot of estimates done
unemployment causes death and risk
persuaders
partisans
public
if exponential rate is correct theres going to be more than just the elderly overwhelming the hospitals
the law is more political than it is legal
courts have taken the contrarion perspective on the constitution
you cant legally defacto suspend the constitution
resteraunt guy had to lay off 80% of his staff – due to no business at resteraunt
people are afraid to deliver due to panic of this disease
all this stuff is based on speculative assumptions
these are troubling precedents
diamond princess
in academia consensus thought is encouraged and dissident discouraged
r naught (linear regression model) .975
95% of the press has gone let’s assume the models are right and let’s dismiss
dissident opinion
Israel is maximizing their hospitals and social distancing elderly and risky populatioin
but not doing anything else
if were waiting for a vaccine that could be 18 mo or never
the press is uninformed. This is a version of a coronavirus
normally during a pandemic ppl would go to the press but now
the public is so disgusted they arent
and this current coverage isnt helping
newsome made the mistake of saying hell send the national guard out
he doesnt actually wanna follow through with this
theyre doing this because theyre trying to test their limits
kungflu virus lol
south korea 663 thousand beds
331 million 925 thousand hospital beds if heard correctly for us
19 million ppl and 56 hospitals beds in NY
2.8 hospital beds/1000 ppl less than 3
every coutnry on the list has a higher per capita hospital bed than the us
15% of ppl who get this disease need a ventilator/hospital
it would take you one month to take care of just corona ppl
so this could get real bad hospitalization-wise
social distancing, isolation, etc
or you build extra beds which would probably cost less
than this current approoach
but you need doctors nurses etc to man these beds so…
the doctors that looked at say its natural (bioweapon question)
even if the worst case scenario is true it would be far less
disastrous thanthe economic fallout of this extreme quarantine
the big question is about the 30 days after the first 30 days
95% didn’t even get the infection when you adjust 4 age demographics
if the modellers turn out wrong then in the future
they are not going to get any confidence
academics do not have very good life experience
eric weinstein and peter theil
its why we havent invented anything of consequence for the
last 60 years
the problem is we cant judge whether or not the mitigation
effects work
the indefinite nature (there is no two weeks) is troublesome
Support the Journal
Make a donation via PayPal to help zazz things up.
$1.00
Not Just Zazz…but Pizzazz
Too high class for regular Zazz?
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Turmeric and Corona Law
Posted on March 22, 2020 by Alex V. Weir
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I ramble about turmeric and discuss some points from VivaFrei’s vlog about the legal, economic, and social consequences of the government’s reaction to the Coronvirus Pandemic.
Viva’s vlog is in the form of a discussion between three lawyers one of whom agrees with the governments response (more or less) and one that disagrees strongly.
Here is the link:
My shitty notes for what it’s worth:
Viva Frei
Robert Barnes
Nate Broady
There is a problem with mass testing
US has an unprecedented economy based on overnight trades of debt.
“If writing checks could solve problems the Soviet Union would still exist.”
A few month shutdown is what led to the great depression.
US is in the worst possible situation to survive this.
Our supply chains are a major issue.
33 min in.
Reporting raw numbers without context causes fear.
This new virus rate is thirty times more deadly than flu rate. This was a bogus stat. And it’s bogusness was rarely questioned. It was bad math based on missing data point.
Scott Adams and others on the bandwagon of “it’s not just the flu” are assholes. There’s not enough info to know.
Early on viruses are bad and then after going through most vulnerable rate goes down.
The fed is on a defacto policy to keep interest rates under 4%. Because people wouldn’t buy it otherwise. So they are under enormous pressure to keep the repo markets at a certain rate.
Is this scale of QE going to have counterproductive results.
Speech control, governmental control, and YT = Creepy.
This situation is a statists delight.
China bought up all the respirators.
China covered stuff up, shoulda controlled wet markets, etc.
Epoch Times = Chinese Americans very critical of China
“He who defines the terms wins the debate.” – debaters, lawyers tip
Things in New York are getting bad.
Anecdotal vs Scientific
Science is abductive
You don’t have a lot of evidence with a lot of evidence
Projections from a small amount of data
Looking at data and modelling says this a choice between the economy and two million peoples lives.
The infection rate is what’s different from the flu.
Harvard guy said 40 percent infection rate and predicted school shutdowns etc.
There is a real problem here.
The New Rochelle bomb
7 days later lawyer who had been tested positive was in a hospital with a ventilator
New York officials traced 50 Coronavirus to this one attorney (anecdotal)
Apparently contrary to UPS this shit can live on surfaces for a bit
Mass transit = HUUUUGE vector
50 ppl infect 50 people per initial 50 = exponential growth
Without intervention the curve will continue
Hence the measures
Overuns of healthcare systems occur due to this virus (my ob: or the panic/hypochoindria)
There is a high recovery rate (question)
Robert Barnes doesn’t like the universality of the model
3 big assumptions
is the exponential rate continuos
The curve is deceptive
Why not use money to build more facilities rather do a life threating shut down
3 key assumptions about the models
modeling is correct
mitigation efforts succed
mitigation doesnt have worse or other impacts
theres no evidence that these measures wouldnt be impacted by the measures themselves
this is what happens when we have pure academcis making polilcy decisions
the first thirty days of virus as data is nuts as proof
even in countries with shitty mitigation after thirty days there is a drop off
Peter Hitchens attacks the models
Correlation does not equal causation necessisarily
Israeli guy who said the virus would die out on its own in China and he was closer to correct than imperial college
First thirty days the virus is vicious but tapers off
Not everyone is equally susceptible
if its 50 to eighty percent infection why didnt it happen on the ship?
Infection is not the fear, hospitalization, and death is the fear
So the people at risk for this should be the ones quarantines etc
3 prexisting conditions on average for corona deaths in italy
we make these difficult decisions all the time
the backfire is terrifying
we live in a world of tradeoffs
who or what do you prioritize
people dont realize the economic extent of this
doesnt appear to have been a lot of estimates done
unemployment causes death and risk
persuaders
partisans
public
if exponential rate is correct theres going to be more than just the elderly overwhelming the hospitals
the law is more political than it is legal
courts have taken the contrarion perspective on the constitution
you cant legally defacto suspend the constitution
resteraunt guy had to lay off 80% of his staff – due to no business at resteraunt
people are afraid to deliver due to panic of this disease
all this stuff is based on speculative assumptions
these are troubling precedents
diamond princess
in academia consensus thought is encouraged and dissident discouraged
r naught (linear regression model) .975
95% of the press has gone let’s assume the models are right and let’s dismiss
dissident opinion
Israel is maximizing their hospitals and social distancing elderly and risky populatioin
but not doing anything else
if were waiting for a vaccine that could be 18 mo or never
the press is uninformed. This is a version of a coronavirus
normally during a pandemic ppl would go to the press but now
the public is so disgusted they arent
and this current coverage isnt helping
newsome made the mistake of saying hell send the national guard out
he doesnt actually wanna follow through with this
theyre doing this because theyre trying to test their limits
kungflu virus lol
south korea 663 thousand beds
331 million 925 thousand hospital beds if heard correctly for us
19 million ppl and 56 hospitals beds in NY
2.8 hospital beds/1000 ppl less than 3
every coutnry on the list has a higher per capita hospital bed than the us
15% of ppl who get this disease need a ventilator/hospital
it would take you one month to take care of just corona ppl
so this could get real bad hospitalization-wise
social distancing, isolation, etc
or you build extra beds which would probably cost less
than this current approoach
but you need doctors nurses etc to man these beds so…
the doctors that looked at say its natural (bioweapon question)
even if the worst case scenario is true it would be far less
disastrous thanthe economic fallout of this extreme quarantine
the big question is about the 30 days after the first 30 days
95% didn’t even get the infection when you adjust 4 age demographics
if the modellers turn out wrong then in the future
they are not going to get any confidence
academics do not have very good life experience
eric weinstein and peter theil
its why we havent invented anything of consequence for the
last 60 years
the problem is we cant judge whether or not the mitigation
effects work
the indefinite nature (there is no two weeks) is troublesome
Support the Journal
Make a donation via PayPal to help zazz things up.
$1.00
Not Just Zazz…but Pizzazz
Too high class for regular Zazz? Help Pizzaz up TFJ!
$5.00
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Category: Alex Weir, Current Events, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Social Commentary, Technology, The Fractal Journal, Uncategorized, VlogTags: Constitution, COVID19, Law, Nate Broady, Pandemic, Precedent, Robert Barnes, Statistics, Turmeric, VivaFrei
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